An event-driven vaccine: how the government could harness the power of real-time data

With three vaccines approved in the UK, we are all delighted that there is a light at the end of the tunnel in these extraordinary times. The public, understandably, is anxious to see progress in the rollout and the return to a sense of normality.

As the number of vaccinations rises, Sky News has recently added a ticker, alongside the usual FTSE share price index, to helpfully inform us exactly how many people the jab has been administered to. Passing the 20 million mark is surely cause for some optimism and hope.

However, the two pieces of information on constant display are very different in nature. The FTSE index continually updates as the trading activity takes place throughout the day. The underlying data behind the FTSE ticker can therefore be described as being “real-time”, meaning that as soon as there is a price change, we see the new value displayed on the screen. The vaccination number, though, will report the same thing for hours. In fact, the number will be refreshed only once a day, in the morning. The closer we get to the end of the day, the more out-of-date the number on the screen is.

Batch processing vs. event-driven

Without inside knowledge of the government’s IT systems, an educated guess would be that they rely on batch processing. This is a traditional, and very common, form of computing where information is exchanged periodically, usually on a set schedule. For example, the generation and distribution of a complex report once a day, perhaps during the overnight hours.

This is in contrast to an ‘event-driven’ approach to data, where data flows seamlessly through an organisation’s IT systems as soon as it is created. By adopting such a system, the government could receive a plethora of benefits, some of which are laid out below.

Better insight and vaccine deployment improvements

A major drawback of a once-a-day batch processing approach is that the granular detail about how the vaccine administration is progressing within the day is lost.

If we look at the current daily data available from government sources, we can immediately infer several things:

• There is an ebb and flow to the vaccination progress on a day-by-day basis.
• The administration volume slowly ramps up from Monday each week and falls back down again by Sunday.
• The maximum daily number vaccinated in a given week is higher compared to previous weeks.

To turn insights into action: if the government was looking to further increase the vaccine deployment velocity they could look to improve each week’s ‘ramp up’ time so that the day of the week with the most jabs administered perhaps starts from Monday or Tuesday, not Friday or Saturday, which seems to be the case right now.

The government may also look to identify and remove the obstacles that hinder the ramp-up being achieved earlier in the week, like logistical issues around vaccine delivery or the ability for patients to be booked in for appointments.

If we can quickly identify these trends from current data, what further insight could be gained if this information was available by the hour, minute or second? It is only by shining a light onto the details that we can enable effective process improvement.

A greater sense of trust and engagement

If news channels showed the vaccine progress as a continually updating number, it would create a sense of collective participation and create a feeling of hope while our most vulnerable members of society dutifully attend their appointments. We would be able to see, minute by minute, how we are changing the tide against this pandemic.

This would no doubt have been the aim behind Sky News creating the ticker in the first place. However, the ‘staleness’, or ‘disconnect’ of that figure as the day goes on currently makes it less valuable. In fact, we know that the closer we get to the end of the current day, the more out of date the number is.

Faster reactions, faster decision making

NHS England reports there are ~1,620 vaccine delivery sites as of March 4, 2021. In the older method of ‘batch processing’, you can imagine each of these sites operating in isolation to record and track their vaccine delivery progress.

Then at some interval, perhaps once a day, each of these sites make their data available to a more central place so that it can all be added together to build the nation-wide view. From that point, the consolidated data is perhaps making its way to various parts of government and ultimately the public.

When operating in a new event-driven manner, each event in the real-world acts as the necessary data that IT systems consume and respond to. Instead of waiting to report on the vaccination progress – by means of a large spreadsheet, for example – the event is created and sent as it takes place.

The government would be in a position to build a real-time view of all the moving parts that make up the vaccine delivery chain today. For instance, it can know instantly if there are any delays in import or transportation to be able to react accordingly. This allows for faster reactions and faster decision-making. To borrow a phrase from the military, who are currently helping the vaccine rollout programme, these ‘events’ become ‘actionable intel’ due to their real-time nature.

A change is in the air

The move towards real-time data is taking place in a number of areas across our society. Certainly, in today’s era of Uber, Amazon Prime, and Asos, the desire for things to be more real-time is readily apparent in consumer behaviour. However, the benefits of event-driven, real-time data extend far beyond simply buying goods and services as fast as possible.

The amount of data publicly available from the government is a great starting point, and it should be commended for it. The next step to ensure that the government can future-proof its operations for years to come, is to not only be a great provider of open data, but also make it real-time, actionable and relevant.

Jamil Ahmed, distinguished engineer, Solace